The U.S. Economic and Security Commission of Inquiry, established two decades ago by Congress and appointed by members of both parties, said stagnant trade and consumer demand in China due to the virus “increase the possibility of disruption,” recalling Trump`s efforts to end two years of trade war with Beijing. , which it had begun in 2018. Consider each of the four sub-goals for 2021 against two simple forecasting benchmarks that aim to highlight important macroeconomic counter-forces. The first is when the U.S. export trend continued unhindered before 2017 to 2021 (blue polka dot line). The second is that Chinese demand for imports from the United States grew at the same rate as total Chinese demand during 2017-21, as measured by Chinese GDP growth (orange dotted line).  The charitable assumption is implicitly that there was no trade war and therefore no additional Chinese retaliatory duties to limit U.S. exports in 2018 and 2019. Even then, the goals are extremely ambitious. Or look at the manufacturing products covered by the agreement (Figure 3b).
U.S. auto exports to China totaled $13 billion in 2017, or about a quarter of China`s auto imports. The United States could expand car exports at the expense of the European Union (EU) or Japan. Boeing aircraft orders could increase at the expense of Airbus in the EU. Additional industrial machinery exports to the United States could reduce China`s trade with the EU, Japan and Korea, and in the pharmaceutical sector, the EU and Switzerland could be crushed. The overall qualitative performance pattern in Figure 2 remains unchanged based on Chinese import statistics. While Chinese import statistics are not only visible in U.S.-China relations, they tend to yield more trade than U.S. export data. The size of the expected deficits is slightly smaller, partly due to the increase in basic data on Chinese imports for 2017.  Nevertheless, the overall deficits expected remain considerable. It will be difficult to evaluate the Trump administration`s agreement and assertions on the matter, because product-specific details about the deal are not published “to prevent market manipulation,” Politico said.